國際電信聯盟(ITU)一則決議似乎被春節氣氛給遮了。那就是4G標準的確定。

ITU網站消息說，1月20日，國際電聯2012年無線電通信全會全體會議正式審議通過3大4G標準，即LTE-Advanced、Wireless MAN-Advanced(802.16m)、 TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" 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title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE。其中，IEEE 802.16m正是WiMax的后續標準。

TD-LTE是基于中國自主知識產權TD-SCDMA的4G技術標準，經政府、運營商、設備商等多年努力終于躋身4G標準行列。2011年初，中移動已在廣州、上海、杭州等6城進行規模技術試驗，去年底開始二期試驗。中移動介紹，按目前結果，TD-LTE關鍵技術和性能指標基本符合理論預期，技術成熟可用，與LTE FDD商用網絡性能相當。

公開場合，中移動高管言必稱TD-LTE對國際運營商具有吸引力，TD-LTE在國際市場紅紅火火。

不過，實際上，TD-LTE商用化進程和市場規模嚴重落后于LTE FDD。截至去年底，全球51個LTE商用網絡中，LTE FDD占46個，且Verizon、AT&T等巨頭參與其中，Verizon甚至已有150萬智能手機用戶。而TD-LTE僅5個商用網絡，運營商規模較小，商用網絡建設明顯落后。目前許多國際知名企業更傾向于FDD。

中國自主創新能走多遠？3G時代，基于FDD的WCDMA和CDMA2000技術一直統領3G產業，而源于中國的TD-SCMDA因商用進程晚、產業能力薄弱，目前已不太可能在全球大規模發展。

TD-LTE被認為是中國首次有機會在全球市場實現超越的寄托。不過，商用進程速度更快的LTE FDD、卷土重來的WiMax都在爭奪全球市場和產業資源。

TD-LTE的時間已不多。如果發展不力，TD-LTE很可能成為第二個TD-SCDMA。無論有關部門與機構認為它多么成功，但消費者的認知有較大反差。歸根結底，這仍只是一個難以走出國門的“中國的標準”，憑借中國市場規模艱難支撐產業鏈。

如果沒有4G標準與中國市場概念，TD-LTE恐怕很難吸引設備商、芯片商及其他海外巨頭投身進來。但最終它的未來也很有可能是“自娛自樂”，之前的積累與付出都將化為泡影。而更嚴重的是，那些投入巨資、緊密跟隨的本土相關企業可能還會心痛一次。

筆者獲悉，相關部門對TD-LTE也有一定顧慮。比如，是否可能造成TD-SCDMA投資浪費？在3G發展不久，上馬4G有無必要？還有，現有運營商市場是否再被打破，以致電信改革努力前功盡棄？

市場機遇稍縱即逝，如何權衡和取舍，這將考驗相關部門與產業界的智慧。